Economic Trend Analysis for Executives and Investors

(Hardback)

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This book combines both a comprehensive analytical framework and economic statistics that should enable business decision-makers to anticipate developing economic trends. The author blends recent and historical economic data with economic theory to provide important benchmarks or "rules of thumb" that give both economists and non-economists enhanced understanding of unfolding economic data and their interrelationships. Through the "matrix system", a disciplined approach is described for integrating readily available economic data into a comprehensive analysis without complex formulae. The extensive appendix of monthly key economic factors for 1978-1991 makes this an important reference source for economic and financial trend analysis. A new and practical method for economic trend analysis is introduced that provides more advanced knowledge than is available from economic newsletters. Schaeffer begins with a general description of the business cycle and the typical behaviour and effect of the credit markets, commerical banks, and the Federal Reserve. Next, 14 key economic factors regularly reported by the business press are described, such as the capacity utilisation rate and yield on three-month Treasury bills. Benchmarks for each of these key economic factors are set forth, together with an insightful discussion of the interrelationships indicating economic trends. A detailed discussion of the 1978-1991 American economy, incorporating monthly data from the historical matrix, demonstrates the practical application of the matrix system. Executives, investors, financial officers and government policymakers should find this book useful in decision-making.

Author Bio

HOWARD G. SCHAEFER is managing director of Schaefer Brothers, Ltd., a Los Angeles based investment banking firm. He previously practiced as a corporate lawyer and tax accountant specializing in corporate and international business matters. A former treasurer of the California Republican Party and member of its board of directors, he is also a frequent lecturer and writer on business and economic issues.