Rationality in the North Korean Regime: Understanding the Kims Strategy of Provocation

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How and why are the Kims rational There is no consensus about either the Kims rationality or how best to determine if they are rational actors. Rationality in the North Korean Regime offers a concise and finite method to assess rationality by examining over ten cases of provocations from the Korean War to the August 2015 land mine incident. The book asserts that Kim Il-sung was predominantly a rational actor, though the regime behaved irrationally at times under his rule, and that both Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un have clearly been rational actors.

As a rational actor, Kim Jong-un is unlikely to give up his nuclear weapons, but this work argues he can be deterred from using them if the United States demonstrates it is willing to co-exist with his regime and pursues long-term engagement to reduce Kims concern that North Koreas sovereignty needs defending from U.S. hostile policy. This could allow gradual social change within the country that could eventually lead to positive systemic change as well as soften Kims rule. In this regard, time may be on the side of the U.S.-South Korean alliance, but the two allies must embrace the long view and learn to be more patient or risk another conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Reviews

This is a timely and interesting study of rationality of North Korean leadership. Innovative in analytical construct, excellent in selection of cases, rigorous in empirical analysis, and rich in policy implications. Strongly recommended for those who are interested in North Korea and international relations of Northeast Asia. -- Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University

Author Bio

David W. Shin is associate professor at the National Intelligence University (NIU) in Bethesda, Maryland.