The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

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From the UK's 'statistical national treasure', a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.

Reviews

National treasure status Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging without being patronising introduction to the mathematics of the unknown * The Times *
Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal * Economist *
One of Britains most eminent statisticians [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of cancer A useful and persuasive account that gets us to recognise, understand and ultimately accept uncertainty -- Bobby Seagull * Financial Times *
Timely... the distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life... One of academias best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation -- John Naughton * Observer *
A statistician offers a masterful guide to embracing the unknown In an age in which scientists often feel pressured to project certainty, and the world clamours for it, his call for acknowledging the limits of our knowledge is refreshing and necessary -- Yongyi Min * Nature *
A brilliant combination of statistics, scientific theory and social responsibility. The book is both insightful and relevant to practice an indispensable contribution to contemporary risk literacy * RiskNET *
This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind. These pages are rich with stories from 50 years of hard earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth. When put together there is an important and compelling narrative about uncertainty here, this is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace it -- Hannah Fry, author of HELLO WORLD
David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane and most personal book. I urge you to read it -- Tim Harford, author of HOW TO MAKE THE WORLD ADD UP
A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations -- Professor David J Hand, author of THE IMPROBABILITY PRINCIPLE
The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master. No one else can do what David Spiegelhalter does, and take this foggiest but most ubiquitous of human problems, then give it such order, rigour, and impeccable judgement. Theres science, philosophy, medicine, statistics life all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed 40 years ago; I suspect itll still be keenly read in 40 years time -- Michael Blastland, co-author of THE TIGER THAT ISN'T

Author Bio

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017 - 2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020.