Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

(Hardback, Main)

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How do we establish what we believe And how can we be certain that what we believe is true And, assuming we are certain that what we believe is true, how do we convince other people that it is true For over two thousand years, from the Medieval Arabic world to the midst of the covid-19 pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Achieve logical perfection and be rewarded with ultimate, universal truth. But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories and laws: when demonstrating that a new medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone's guilt, or deciding whether you trust a self-driving car or a financial transaction, the weighing up of evidence is far from simple. To navigate proof, we must reach into a thicket of errors and biases, embrace uncertainty, to discern between truth and falsehood - never more so than when previously relied-upon methods fail. In Proof, bestselling author, statistician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski spans science, politics, philosophy and economics, to explore how truth emerges - and why it falters.

Reviews

'Praise for The Rules of Contagion:
It is hard to imagine a more timely publication...a useful, eye-opening read [and] a worthwhile book; much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' - Sunday Times

'A clear, calm, historical overview of the mathematical ideas at the forefront of our pandemic response, where they came from and how well they stand up when you put them to the test.' - Hannah Fry

'Charts the history of this now-pivotal science, from its origins in understanding the spread of malaria, to its central role in predicting the dissemination of everything from diseases to fake news.' - Economist

'Astonishingly bold...Kucharski has pulled off the extraordinary trick of shining the brightest light on this unseen, menacing, but ultimately beatable, enemy.' - Daily Mail

'The Rules of Contagion is a timely reminder of the importance of disease modelling. Without such models, we would be in far greater trouble battling COVID-19.' - Lancet

Author Bio

Adam Kucharski is a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks has included Ebola, Zika and COVID-19, and he has produced real-time analysis for multiple governments and health agencies. He is a TED senior fellow and winner of the 2016 Rosalind Franklin Award Lecture and the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize. The author of Rules of Contagion, his writing has appeared in the Observer, Financial Times, Wired and New Statesman.