Minding the Weather: How Expert Forecasters Think

(Paperback)

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A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science. This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance. The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.

Author Bio

Robert R. Hoffman is Senior Research Scientist at the Institute for Human and Machine Cognition in Pensacola, Florida. Daphne S. LaDue is a Research Scientist at the University of Oklahoma's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and Director of the Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. H. Michael Mogil is currently a consulting meteorologist focusing on meteorological education in the primary and secondary school systems. Paul J. Roebber is Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. J. Gregory Trafton is Cognitive Scientist at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C.