The Steps to War: An Empirical Study

(Paperback)

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The question of what causes war has concerned statesmen since the time of Thucydides. The Steps to War utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war. In this book, Paul Senese and John Vasquez test one of the major behavioral explanations of war--the steps to war--by identifying the various factors that put two states at risk for war. Focusing on the era of classic international politics from 1816 to 1945, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War period, they look at the roles of territorial disputes, alliances, rivalry, and arms races and show how the likelihood of war increases significantly as these risk factors are combined. Senese and Vasquez argue that war is more likely in the presence of these factors because they increase threat perception and put both sides into a security dilemma. The Steps to War calls into question certain prevailing realist beliefs, like peace through strength, demonstrating how threatening to use force and engaging in power politics is more likely to lead to war than to peace.

Reviews

"In this detailed, complex book, Vasquez and the late Senese set out to add to the 'steps to war' body of literature."--J. Fields, Choice "[T]his book is an exemplar of empirical peace science... For Paul Senese, whose service to the peace science community and commitment to peace research ended unfortunately too soon, it is a fitting, albeit unwelcome, coda that will continue to inspire us as we endeavor to unravel the enduring problem of international war."--Mark J.C. Crescenzi, Perspectives on Politics "This is an important book that confirms many of the postulates of the steps to war theory in a compelling fashion. It also provides a seminal example of 'scientific' research in international relations."--Alex Bellamy, Political Studies Review "This book is highly recommended to the student of conflict data and the general reader capable of wading through the statistical analysis."--Michael Izbicki, International Journal on World Peace

Author Bio

Paul D. Senese was associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, State University of New York. He died in 2006 as this book was coming to completion. John A. Vasquez is the Thomas B. Mackie Scholar in International Relations at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.