Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan: Policy Scenarios and Implications

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Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-Indian and Sino-Japanese relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency, and whether competition or cooperation for scarce energy resources will result. The author lists and describes three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus, and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis and the PRINCE Method to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods. Further, this book discusses and evaluates their strategic implications for India and Japan and estimates the most likely oil energy future. This book argues that Chinas rising dependence on imported oil, along with its adroit use of soft power, economic prowess, strategic engagement of the world as an alternative model of political and economic development, military modernization, and rapid economic growth can only mean that it will alter the global status quo and become the dominant actor in world affairs in the near future. India and Japan will be less influential economically because China is skillfully harnessing and strategically exercising the elements of national power (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) to acquire scarce oil energy resources in the Near East, Western Hemisphere, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Reviews

This book by Dr. George Eberling is a pace-setter in an ever more important fieldglobal competition for scarce energy reserves. The author focuses on the nexus of this competitionChina, India, and Japan's future demands. Eberling draws on his extensive academic research and operational experience as a naval officer to offer sharply analytical, well-reasoned scenarios. He buttresses his arguments with useful tables and figures, within a framework of the PRINCE forecasting system. Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan is an important book, strongly recommended for academics, industry analysts, and government policy-makers. -- Bernard D. Cole, National War College
The strength of George Eberlings book is the framework he uses to understand the geopolitical calculus of Chinese energy choices, using statistical analysis to construct policy scenarios for three possible Chinese oil futures, and then to draw the strategic implications for Chinas relations with India and Japan for each of the scenarios. In the debate on whether Chinas overseas oil investment policy is guided by the Beijing governments strategic and mercantilist strategies or by powerful Chinese national oil companies responding to market mechanisms with commercial priorities, Dr. Eberling clearly chooses to focus on the governments geopolitical calculus and competitive instincts. Nevertheless, Eberling suggests that energy cooperation with China is one future possibility. Policymakers may find useful his recommendations for multilateral Initiatives in energy cooperation, a topic not many energy analysts consider in-depth. -- Gaye Christoffersen, Hopkins-Nanjing Center

Author Bio

George G. Eberling received his PhD from Claremont Graduate University.