Predicting Leader Survival in Covert Operations from Congo to Cuba

(Hardback)

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This book explores the unique relationship between covert action and leader survival. Specifically, how leadership styles and personality traits influence this relationship. The life of a ruler is ephemeral. For those who are lucky, their exit from office is through retirement or old age. For most, their tenure is short, often ending through violent means. The overthrow of rulers by their rivals is a common theme throughout world history, and the strategy remains a popular choice in contemporary warfare. However, despite the frequency of regime change, very little is discussed in international relations about covert regime change and its effects on leader survival.

Reviews

In this insightful work, Joy S. Patton does an exceptional job identifying and explaining the causes and consequences of the use of covert action by the United States to remove and replace the leaders of regimes in states across the developing world. Drawing on eight Cold War case studies that range geographically from Indonesia and Vietnam in Asia to Chile, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala in Latin America--and from the perspectives of Washington and the targeted states alike--Patton provides both sound academic analysis and prudent policy advice on the short- and longer-term costs and benefits of intervention and regime change. Through her prudent and timeless assessments, readers are left with a keen understanding of the conditions under which the United States should employ covert action to achieve strategic objectives and when it should simply refrain from doing so.

--Robert J. Pauly Jr., University of Southern Mississippi

This effort by Dr. Joy Patton is a skillful cautionary tale regarding the survival of eight leaders who were removed by American covert operations during the Cold War. Each case study opens with a concise analysis of the political and social-cultural conditions and continues with a detailed analysis of the relevant leader. Her analysis of the characteristics of the leaders overthrown by the United States offers an additional perspective for future policymakers. Dr. Patton adds to the existing research confirming that understanding the impacts of regime change on a leader, state, or region, are difficult to predict or control. Her research reminds American leaders to better understand local conditions before considering covert action that may result in regime change.

--Tony Cerella, executive advisor to NATO Headquarters Chief of Staff

Author Bio

Joy Patton teaches intelligence studies at American Military University.